Using Growth Models to Track Student Progress

It's not just about where students are—it's also about how far they’ve come.

As school leaders, you know that raw scores and proficiency percentages only tell part of the story. That’s where growth modeling comes in. Instead of measuring students against a fixed benchmark, growth models evaluate how much progress a student (or group of students) has made over time.

Whether you're using Student Growth Percentiles (SGPs), value-added models (VAMs), or your own cohort tracking systems, growth data provides a more nuanced, equitable view of student learning.

Traditional assessments focus on achievement—did a student meet the standard? But two students scoring the same on a test might have very different journeys. One might have made a year’s worth of growth, while the other may have stagnated.

Growth modeling helps answer deeper questions:

• Are students progressing at an expected rate?

• Are high-achieving students continuing to grow, or plateauing?

• Is your school accelerating learning for those who started behind?

• Are your interventions working across multiple years?

In short, growth data reveals impact—yours, your teachers', and your school’s. Here are the different types:

1. Student Growth Percentiles (SGPs)

SGPs compare a student’s progress to that of their academic peers—students with similar past test scores. NWEA MAP and iREADY have SGP built into their systems.

• Example: A student with an SGP of 65 grew more than 65% of their academic peers.

• Why it's useful: It accounts for where the student started and helps evaluate whether they’re making expected or accelerated progress.

2. Value-Added Models (VAMs)

VAMs estimate the contribution of a school or teacher to student growth, adjusting for prior achievement and sometimes other factors (like demographics).

• Why it's useful: It can help leaders assess program and instructional effectiveness.

3. Cohort Growth Tracking

Even without advanced statistical models, you can track the year-to-year performance of student groups—by grade level, demographic, or intervention status.

• Why it's useful: It helps identify systemic trends and long-term outcomes from school initiatives.

How to Use Growth Models Effectively

Step 1: Identify Available Data

Check with your district or state department to see if SGPs or VAM data are already calculated and available to schools. Many states include them in annual accountability reports.

Step 2: Look Beyond Proficiency

Growth data helps reframe success. A student who is still below grade level but made 2 years' worth of growth should be celebrated—and supported to keep moving forward.

Step 3: Disaggregate the Data

Break down growth by:

• Subgroups (MLs, SPED, economically disadvantaged)

• Classrooms or teachers

• Programs or interventions

This helps you find what’s working and where equity gaps may persist.

Step 4: Share and Reflect

Use growth data in leadership meetings, teacher PLCs, and parent conversations. It shifts the focus from “Did they pass?” to “Did they improve?”

Step 5: Pair with Other Indicators

Combine growth data with attendance, SEL, or classroom assessment trends to build a holistic view of student progress.

Questions to Ask

• Are our lowest-performing students growing as fast as their peers?

• Which grades or content areas show the most (or least) growth?

• Are students in intervention programs showing accelerated progress?

• What patterns do we see in long-term cohort growth?

• Are we acknowledging staff not just for high scores, but for high growth?

In the push toward equity and excellence, growth modeling is a great strategy. It helps schools recognize progress that might otherwise go unnoticed, and it holds systems accountable for helping all students improve—regardless of where they start.

As a principal or vice principal, championing growth models means shifting the narrative from “Are we there yet?” to “How far have we come?” That’s a more powerful—and more human—way to lead.

To dig deeper, professors from Harvard and Berkeley collaborated with CCSSO to create a guide to growth modeling for practitioners.